Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Kevin Harvick and Juan Pablo Montoya, all eliminated from the 2007 Nextel Cup Championship.
That could be the headline of this post if not for NASCAR's Race for the Chase and Chase for the Cup, points formula.
I can hear Steve now; "Where do you get this wacky stuff... bonehead?"
Several years ago, about 3 years BC (before the Chase), we found this stat that said "No driver more than 200 points out of the championship lead after six races, had ever come back to win the Winston/Nextel Cup." Entering the Easter siesta, only six drivers make the cut. Gordon (you guess which one), Burton (ditto), Johnson, Kennseth, Kyle Busch and Hamlin. Denny Hamlin is only ten points from statistical elimination! That leaves names that account for an awful lot of NASCAR's fan base on the championship sidelines. There are thirty races to go.
Enter, The Race for the Chase. If you use the same two hundred point bogey as the the cut off for contention to make the Final Twelve (we need to come up with something catchy for the Final Twelve. The NCAA has Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight and Final Four. What do we have? Final Twelve - come on. Maybe Dandy Dozen or One More than Eleven from Heaven. Help!) you have to go all the way back to 34th place in points to start crossing off contenders.
So, who's out? There are 53 point earners so far this year plus one, what would you call him, point loser, point refunder, anti-point getter? Michael Waltrip may have already been eliminated from the 2008 Chase. Toss all the rest of the Toyotas in the outed group. Not having a first year manufacturer make the Chase is not really a surprise but I thought that the possibility of making it would last a bit deeper into the season. The Wood Brothers with Ken Shrader are gone as are Menard and Scott Riggs, both disappointments.
The biggest shock however is the driver in 34th place and just out of our theoretical Chase for the Cup contention. Kasey Kahne is too good to be where he is in points. Combined, the Kahne and Riggs position this early in the Race for the Chase for Dodge is more dreary than the Toyota results.
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